Saiba como projetar o risco de uma operação

Dalton Vieira

07 de June de 2018

Olá amigos investidores, sejam muito bem-vindos a nossa sala de aprendizado. Explicarei neste vídeo como projetar o risco de uma operação.

Projetando o risco

Qual o propósito de projetar o risco de uma operação? Correto, saber qual é o objetivo de lucro da operação considerando a relação 1:1 entre o risco e retorno. Esta é apenas uma das formas de se obter o ponto de saída com lucro de uma operação.

E como saber qual é o risco da operação? Simples, o risco é obtido através da diferença percentual entre o preço de entrada e o ponto de stop. Por exemplo, você comprou uma ação por R$40,00 e colocou o stop nos R$38,00. Quanto o preço precisa cair para acionar o stop? Correto, 5%. Este é o risco da operação.

Agora para projetar o risco e obter o primeiro ponto de objetivo da operação (relação 1:1), basta aplicar o risco percentual sobre o preço de entrada. No exemplo comentado, o valor de saída será obtido ao calcular uma valorização de 5% sobre os R$40,00. Resultado: R$42,00 é o ponto de saída da posição comprada.

Exemplo - PETR4

Vamos agora realizar os cálculos usando o gráfico diário da PETR4 (figura abaixo). Suponhamos que você comprou a PETR4 no dia 21/10/11 por R$19,10. A compra foi motivada pela formação do fundo destacado. Portanto, você estabeleceu o stop da operação logo abaixo dos R$18,45 - mínima do fundo.

Quanto o preço precisa cair para acionar o stop? Excelente, 3,4%. O objetivo de lucro da operação é obtido ao projetar o risco de 3,4% sobre o valor de compra, que foi de R$19,10. Resultado: R$19,75. Objetivo que foi alcançado dois pregões após a entrada.

O investidor pode projetar um retorno inferior ao risco da operação? Sim, pode. No exemplo da PETR4, significaria realizar o lucro abaixo dos R$19,75. Neste caso, você aceitaria ganhar menos do que a possibilidade de perda da operação. Logo, cada prejuízo obtido comprometeria o lucro de mais de uma operação bem-sucedida.

Desta forma, é recomendável que o retorno, objetivo de lucro da sua operação, não seja inferior ao risco. Isto porque seria necessário um índice de acerto alto nas operações para que o seu capital evolua no decorrer do tempo.

Etapa concluída

Parabéns! Você concluiu mais uma etapa. Espero sempre contar com a sua presença na nossa sala de aprendizado. Muito obrigado!

Recomendo!

Veja também o artigo sobre Risco e Retorno. Deseja continuar o aprendizado? Simples, acesse o menu Aprenda>Blog do site e desfrute dos diversos vídeos e artigos disponíveis.

Comentários | 36 mensagem(s)

Anderson 31 de January de 2023

Excelente Artigo!!! Obrigado! https://investidortop.com.br/

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